March 15, 2023 Aluminum Morning Review

  【 Market Analysis 】: The Shanghai Aluminum 2204 contract closed at 18310 yuan/ton, with a spot price of 18220 yuan/ton on March 13th. SMM reported an increase discount of -20 yuan/ton. The logic of Yunnan's production reduction and cost collapse is falsified, and the emergence of accumulated peak stocks has supported the Shanghai aluminum price. The seasonal weak demand situation has also suppressed the space above the Shanghai aluminum price, forming the current volatile situation. How can the subsequent demand reality prove that the macro level's strong expectations are the breakthrough point in changing the current market structure? Pay attention to the dense release of economic data in the middle of the year and the launch of new policies after the "Two Sessions", and Shanghai Aluminum Corporation enters a window period of direction selection.

  【 Investment Strategy 】: Currently, the implied volatility on the market is relatively low. Therefore, considering the option double buy strategy (buying call and put options with the same strike price), a recommended strike price of 18300 is recommended.